美联储政策博弈引爆黄金，领峰环球$30000赠金助您驾驭巅峰行情

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a critical turning point in August, driven by increasing divergence in Federal Reserve policy and adjustments in global tariff policies, leading to significant fluctuations in gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the July meeting, but internal disagreements have become more pronounced [3]. - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need for more data to confirm the downward trend in inflation and noted that tariff policy adjustments could reshape inflation prospects [3]. - There is a split within the Fed, with some members supporting a rate cut in September due to concerns over high rates suppressing business investment, while others warn that premature cuts could trigger a second wave of inflation [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year in June, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3]. - Rising prices in various sectors, including a 0.4% increase in clothing prices and a 1.9% surge in household appliance prices, indicate growing inflationary pressures [3]. - The Markit manufacturing PMI for July fell back into contraction territory, reflecting the lowest business confidence in the past two and a half years [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The upcoming month is expected to see accelerated gold market activity, with key central bank meetings and important economic data releases on the horizon [6]. - Significant dates include the Bank of England's rate decision on August 7, the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision on August 12, and the Jackson Hole global central bank conference on August 21 [6]. - The market is poised for potential peaks in gold prices, with various economic indicators set to be released, including U.S. retail sales and CPI data [6].