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细说汇率⑮ 美元反弹的脆弱
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-04 06:36

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in the US dollar index, highlighting its decline to below 96 and subsequent recovery to around 100, driven by changes in US trade policy and economic indicators [1][3]. Group 1: US Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index experienced its worst half-year performance since 1973, dropping to below 96 before rebounding in July, marking the first monthly increase of the year [1]. - In July, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reached new highs, while the 10-year US Treasury yield stabilized below 4.5% [1]. Group 2: Trade Policy Changes - The rebound in the dollar index is attributed to the rising influence of Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who shifted trade policy from aggressive tariffs to a more systematic approach, including differentiated tariff rates and investment incentives [3]. - The new trade strategy includes a framework agreement with the UK and a "truce" with China, allowing for substantive negotiations while maintaining a tough stance on other countries like Brazil and Canada [3][4]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Economic Risks - The implementation of the "Great American Act" has led to a projected increase in the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy [5]. - The Federal Reserve's policy effectiveness is declining, with recent meetings showing internal disagreements and external pressures from the Trump administration, which could impact market sentiment [8][9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Despite the dollar's rebound, underlying vulnerabilities remain, including uncertainties surrounding new tariffs and the potential for a market correction, particularly in meme stocks that have shown volatility [9]. - Recent adjustments in non-farm payroll data indicate a potential increase in unemployment rates, suggesting that the labor market may be reaching a tipping point, which could further affect economic stability [12].