“债券增值税新政”B面：引发机构买债热情降温？银行债券交易员直言“不会”

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to a 6% value-added tax (VAT), while interest income from bonds issued before this date will remain exempt from VAT until maturity [2][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Financial Implications - The restoration of VAT on bond interest income is expected to generate additional fiscal revenue, potentially exceeding 100 billion yuan, as the bond market has seen significant capital gains in recent years [5][6]. - The current stock of interest rate bonds is approximately 118 trillion yuan, while credit bonds stand at 51 trillion yuan, indicating a need for consistent tax policies across different bond types to avoid market distortions [5][6]. - The estimated short-term revenue from the new VAT policy could reach 337 million yuan, with long-term projections suggesting that revenue could approach 1 trillion yuan as the stock of government and financial bonds continues to grow [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Pricing Dynamics - The new tax policy may lead to a dual pricing mechanism for old and new bonds, with older bonds benefiting from tax exemptions, potentially driving their yields lower [7][8]. - In a buyer's market, newly issued bonds may need to offer higher coupon rates to attract investors, while in a seller's market, the tax burden may fall on investors, affecting the coupon rates of new issues [7]. - The tax rate for proprietary institutions is set at 6%, while asset management products will be taxed at 3%, which may pressure the interest income from bond assets, necessitating more cautious investment decisions [7]. Group 3: Impact on Individual Investors - The policy change will have minimal impact on individual investors, as small-scale taxpayers with monthly sales below 100,000 yuan will remain exempt from VAT until December 31, 2027 [9].