Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 智通财经网·2025-08-04 06:57Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its oil price forecast, predicting an average price of $64 per barrel for Brent crude in Q4 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026, but notes increased risks to its baseline forecast due to recent developments [1] - The report highlights that sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil supply are intensifying, posing upward risks to price forecasts, especially as idle capacity is recovering faster than expected [1] - There are downward risks to the average annual demand growth forecast of 800,000 barrels per day for 2025-2026 due to increased U.S. tariffs and weak economic activity data [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, aiming to regain market share, but Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to maintain production quotas unchanged after September due to anticipated faster increases in OECD commercial inventories [1] - Analysts believe the risk of large-scale disruptions in Russian supply is limited, given the significant trading volume and price discounts to maintain demand, with major buyers like China and India showing continued interest [1] - Reports indicate that Indian state-owned refineries have stopped purchasing oil from Russia recently due to reduced discounts on Russian oil and warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump against buying Russian oil [1]