Nvidia's set to regain some China access. But it still faces eroding AI chip market share

Core Insights - Nvidia's H20 chips are set to return to the Chinese market following assurances from the Trump administration, but market experts predict a less enthusiastic reception due to increased competition and regulatory scrutiny [1][2] - Despite the return of H20 chips, Nvidia's market share in China's AI chip sector is expected to decline from 66% in 2024 to 54% by 2025, as domestic competitors gain traction [2] - The rise of Chinese AI chipmakers, such as Huawei, Cambricon, and Hygon, is attributed to U.S. export controls, which have limited competition from advanced global alternatives [4] Market Dynamics - The localization ratio of China's AI chip market is projected to increase significantly from 17% in 2023 to 55% by 2027, indicating a shift towards domestic production [4] - Analysts suggest that while Nvidia may experience some recovery in China, it faces potential market share erosion as customers may have found success with local rivals during the H20 export restrictions [4] - Bernstein's forecasts are based on the assumption that U.S. chip restrictions will remain stable, allowing Chinese companies to continue developing advanced chips, which could diminish demand for older U.S. products [5]