Founder Securities(SH:601901) 智通财经网·2025-08-04 08:13Core Viewpoint - The report from Founder Securities indicates an expected increase in thermal coal demand for the year, with tightening supply likely to further boost coal prices. This creates potential benefits for elastic and undervalued sectors, while high dividend-paying stocks may see valuation improvements due to established policy support for coal prices [1]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impacts - A new coal mine production verification policy has been introduced, strictly controlling overproduction behaviors. The policy mandates that annual coal output must not exceed announced capacity, and monthly output must not exceed 10% of announced capacity, with non-compliant mines facing shutdowns for rectification [2]. - The evolution of coal supply policies reflects changing market dynamics, with past policies addressing issues of overcapacity, compliance, and now overproduction. The latest policy aims to regulate production behavior directly, indicating a responsive adjustment to market conditions [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply control measures are expected to stabilize coal prices, while demand will determine the potential for price increases. Historical data shows that past policies have led to significant price increases following their implementation, suggesting a similar outcome may occur if demand improves [4]. - In the thermal coal sector, domestic production is expected to increase as safety inspections ease, while imports are declining due to reduced profitability. The current high temperatures are driving up demand, with power plants consuming more coal, indicating a potential year-on-year increase in coal usage [5]. - For coking coal, domestic production remains high, but falling prices have led to reduced operating rates in some mines. The inventory dynamics are complex, with downstream demand influencing stock levels, and expectations of rising prices prompting early inventory accumulation [5].