德商银行：中期内铜价仍有支撑

Core Viewpoint - The newly announced U.S. copper tariff policy is less severe than expected, imposing a 50% tariff only on semi-finished copper products while exempting refined copper products [2] Group 1: Tariff Details - Effective August 1, a 50% tariff will be applied to imports of semi-finished copper products such as copper tubes, plates, and rods [2] - Refined copper products, including cathodes and anodes, are not subject to the new tariffs, which was an unexpected outcome [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, Comex copper prices plummeted by 20%, and the premium of New York copper prices over LME prices, which had recently reached 30%, significantly narrowed [2] - LME copper prices remained largely unaffected by the tariff news [2] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - In the medium term, there may be some support for copper prices as the U.S. continues to procure copper normally on the international market [2] - However, due to anticipated tariffs, U.S. copper inventories have been sufficiently stocked, leading to a potential decrease in short-term procurement levels [2] Group 4: Domestic Production Impact - The tariffs are expected to boost the domestic sales of semi-finished copper products, aiming to enhance the output of U.S. copper smelters [2] - If domestic production costs are significantly higher than those of regular suppliers, the tariffs could negatively impact U.S. copper production levels [2]