彻底败给AR眼镜，从风口上的猪到边缘化，VR为何落寞了？

Core Insights - The VR market is experiencing a significant decline, with a 61% year-on-year drop in shipments in China for 2023, marking the largest decline in five years, while AR shipments have surged by 67% in the same period [3][9] - The initial hype around VR, driven by the metaverse trend from 2021 to 2022, has dissipated, leading to decreased investment and interest in VR technologies [5][7] - Major VR companies are shifting focus towards Mixed Reality (MR) devices, as evidenced by Pico's decision to abandon the Pico 5 in favor of developing MR technology [9][10] Market Trends - The AR market is rapidly gaining traction, with a 64% growth in AR glasses shipments in China for 2023, and projections indicate that AR will surpass VR in market share [9][18] - The decline in VR shipments is not only a domestic issue; globally, VR shipments are expected to decrease by 12% in 2024, continuing a three-year downward trend [9][10] - The shift towards MR is seen as a response to the limitations of VR, with MR devices offering both immersive virtual displays and realistic AR experiences, catering to a broader range of applications [9][18] Industry Challenges - Both VR and MR face challenges related to content availability, ecosystem development, and user experience, which have hindered widespread adoption [11][13] - The VR market has not seen significant innovation in recent years, leading to stagnation and a lack of consumer interest [13][15] - The high cost of MR devices, such as Apple's Vision Pro, poses a barrier to entry, necessitating a focus on affordability and ecosystem development to drive adoption [17][18] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see a transition from traditional VR to MR, with predictions that VR devices will gradually exit the market by 2028 [9][10] - AR technology is evolving rapidly, with decreasing costs and improved functionality, positioning it as a potential companion to smartphones rather than a complete replacement [18] - The success of MR will depend on addressing current limitations and enhancing user experience, as well as creating a compelling narrative around its applications [17][18]