债券增值税新政”B面：引发机构买债热情降温？银行债券交易员直言“不会

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to a 6% value-added tax (VAT), while interest income from bonds issued before this date will remain exempt from VAT until maturity [3][5][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Implications - The policy change aims to increase fiscal revenue, potentially adding hundreds of billions to the treasury, as the bond market has seen significant capital gains in recent years [4][6]. - The new VAT on interest income is expected to generate approximately 337 million yuan in the short term, with estimates suggesting that the total revenue could reach around 1 billion yuan in the medium term as the scale of new debt expands [7][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Pricing Dynamics - The introduction of VAT may lead to a dual pricing mechanism for old and new bonds, with older bonds benefiting from tax exemptions, potentially driving their yields lower [8][9]. - The market may experience different dynamics based on supply and demand; in a buyer's market, new bonds may need to offer higher coupon rates, while in a seller's market, the tax burden may fall on investors, affecting the attractiveness of new issues [8][9]. Group 3: Impact on Different Investor Segments - Institutional investors may become more cautious in their investment decisions, particularly in balancing their portfolios across various asset types, including government bonds, credit bonds, and equities [8]. - Individual investors are largely unaffected by this policy change, as they can still benefit from VAT exemptions under certain conditions [9].