逆势而为？英国央行或将降息，但通胀已“蠢蠢欲动”

Group 1 - The Bank of England is expected to lower its key interest rate from 4.25% to 4% this Thursday, with further cuts anticipated by the end of the year, despite rising inflation concerns [2] - UK inflation surged to a peak of 11.1% post-Russia-Ukraine conflict, significantly higher than the Eurozone or the US, primarily due to reliance on natural gas for heating and electricity [2] - Inflation rates in the UK are projected to decline significantly, reaching a low of 1.7% by September 2024, but are expected to rebound faster than in the US or Eurozone [2] Group 2 - Inflation expectations in the UK have risen, with long-term inflation indicators nearing their highest levels since late 2022, reflecting concerns about future price increases and wage demands [5] - Despite a significant drop in overall consumer inflation in 2023, key components used to measure long-term domestic price pressures have not decreased similarly [8] - Service sector price inflation is heavily influenced by rising labor costs, and food and beverage prices are also experiencing a rapid increase, impacting public perception of inflation, especially among poorer demographics [9][12] Group 3 - Private sector annual wage growth is slightly below 5%, down from over 8% two years ago, but still above pre-pandemic levels, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [13] - Wage growth is expected to slow to around 3% over the next 18 months, which could exert downward pressure on inflation [13][15] - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicates strong pricing pressures, with significant cost increases reported by service and manufacturing sectors, suggesting potential upward pressure on consumer prices [16][19]