猪价掉头就跌！不止7元不保？

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices rising briefly before falling again, indicating that the decline is the norm rather than the exception [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current pig market is focused on capacity reduction, with the government having intervened three times this year to address production capacity issues [3]. - Despite a temporary increase in prices at the beginning of August, the market could not sustain this due to ongoing capacity reduction efforts [3]. - There is significant bearish sentiment in the market, with concerns that prices may fall below 7 yuan per jin [3]. Group 2: Regional Price Disparities - The pig market shows a clear divergence, with southern regions maintaining higher prices (above 7.5 yuan per jin) compared to northern regions, which are experiencing significant price drops [5]. - The reduction in pig supply from the north, coupled with increased pressure from secondary fattening in the north, has led to a supply surplus and price declines in those areas [6][8]. - Southern regions have a higher dependency on pork consumption, which supports their prices, while northern consumption shows seasonal volatility [8]. Group 3: Future Demand and Seasonal Factors - Demand for pork is expected to rebound in the third quarter as weather conditions improve and major holidays approach, which typically boost consumption [9]. - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, along with the winter holiday season, are anticipated to provide additional support for pork consumption [9]. Group 4: Pricing and Production Management - The rhythm of pig sales is crucial; even with an overall supply surplus, prices may not continuously decline if sales are managed effectively [10]. - Current production strategies do not indicate a panic sell-off, which could mitigate drastic price drops [10]. - Experts predict that while breeding profits may decrease, most producers are still operating near the cost threshold of 14 yuan per kilogram, suggesting that prices may hover around 7 yuan per jin without sustained drops below this level [12].