上周非农报告究竟有多糟？

Core Insights - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data for July, initially perceived as negative, reveals a more complex economic landscape upon deeper analysis [1] - The report has prompted a reassessment of whether the U.S. economy is undergoing a healthy adjustment post-pandemic or signaling a potential recession [1] Employment Trends - A significant factor in the slowdown of employment data is the reduction of jobs in federal, state, and local government sectors, accounting for 40% of the decline in job creation over the past six months [2] - The private sector also shows a notable slowdown in job creation, particularly in June, but the discussion around the employment report would be less tense if government hiring had not decreased [2] - Employment growth in cyclical industries, which are sensitive to economic cycles, has nearly come to a halt, indicating a concerning trend that has persisted since early this year [2] Economic Outlook - Investors are faced with the question of whether the U.S. economy is experiencing a cyclical slowdown or a normalization after an irrational post-pandemic boom [3] - The absolute unemployment rate remains low, comparable to periods of economic prosperity in the late 1990s and mid-2000s, suggesting a potential healthy adjustment [3] - However, the direction of the unemployment rate raises concerns, as historical patterns indicate that a rapid increase in unemployment often leads to prolonged downturns [3] Corporate Profitability - Corporate profitability is a key reference point for assessing economic health, with current S&P 500 earnings growth at 10%, supporting the notion of a "normalization" scenario [3] - There is significant industry divergence in profitability, with technology and financial sectors experiencing rapid growth, while consumer goods and materials sectors show a marked slowdown [4] - This divergence aligns with the weak employment data in cyclical industries, indicating that the U.S. economy is not experiencing broad-based prosperity but rather a structural imbalance [4]