白宫描绘的“美国繁荣”为何持续被泼冷水？

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. government's trade policies, particularly high tariffs, are undermining the economy's competitiveness and could lead to a significant economic downturn [2][5][12]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has surged from 2% to approximately 16%, the highest level since the 1930s, which is expected to increase production costs and reduce global competitiveness [5]. - High tariffs have resulted in increased customs revenue for the U.S., but they also threaten to decrease exports and squeeze the incomes of American workers [5][8]. - The potential positive impact of tariffs on GDP is minimal, estimated at only 0.7%, especially when considering retaliatory measures from trade partners [8]. Group 2: Confidence in the Dollar - There is a growing risk of diminishing confidence in the U.S. dollar, which has been the cornerstone of the U.S. economic dominance, as major credit rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating since 2011 [5][6]. - The unpredictability of the White House's policies is causing increasing tension in financial markets, which could lead to a historic decline in investor confidence in U.S. assets [6]. Group 3: Labor Market and Economic Growth - Recent employment data indicates a significant downturn, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% and non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in July, below market expectations [12]. - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a stagnation in labor force growth and a decrease in labor participation rates, contributing to economic slowdown [13]. - Tariffs are eroding corporate profits and household purchasing power, while a reduction in immigration limits overall economic growth potential [13].