Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao·2025-08-04 14:17Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with Brent crude futures dropping by 2.00% to $68.28 per barrel and WTI crude futures falling by 2.33% to $65.76 per barrel [1][2] - Goldman Sachs maintained its oil price forecast, projecting an average of $64 per barrel for Brent crude in Q4 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026, while acknowledging increasing risks to its baseline predictions due to potential demand declines from U.S. tariffs and economic weakness [5] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking a strategic shift towards increasing output to regain market share [4][5] Group 2 - The oil market is currently facing a contradiction between expectations of supply growth and limited demand breakthroughs, with geopolitical risks being a significant disturbance factor [6] - The potential for military escalation from the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and uncertainties from the Russia-Ukraine conflict may heighten concerns over oil supply disruptions, leading to price volatility [6] - Goldman Sachs assumes that OPEC+ will maintain its production quotas after September, anticipating an acceleration in OECD commercial inventory growth and a decline in seasonal demand support [5]