美国加征关税下，中国出口企业如何破局？

Group 1 - The uncertainty of the US tariff policy continues to impact Chinese export companies, with a survey conducted by UBS Evidence Lab revealing insights into their strategies and industry trends [1] - 71% of surveyed companies expect a decrease in US tariffs over the next 12 months, with about half anticipating rates to fall within the 11-30% range; however, 27% believe tariffs may increase further, with most expecting rates to rise to the 31-54% range [2] - 94% of companies believe that a trade agreement between China and the US will eventually be reached, but there is caution regarding the timing, with only 20% expecting it by Q3 2025 [5] Group 2 - There is significant pressure on orders from the US market, with 81% of exporting companies reporting current order volumes below the same period last year; if tariffs remain unchanged, 87% expect further declines, with 15% predicting a drop of over 30% [8] - Macro data supports this trend, showing a 24% year-on-year decline in China's exports to the US in Q2, while exports to other regions grew by 11% [11] - UBS forecasts that the decline in China's exports to the US in the second half of the year may exceed the 24% drop seen in Q2 [14] Group 3 - Chinese export companies are actively negotiating with US importers to adjust pricing strategies, with about 50% considering lowering export prices to retain US orders, while 29% are contemplating price increases [15][16] - Currently, companies can only pass on 35-40% of tariff costs to US buyers, significantly lower than during the 2018-19 trade war, influenced by a 2% appreciation of the RMB against the USD [18] Group 4 - Companies are taking proactive measures alongside government support to stabilize exports, with 46% planning to expand into non-US markets, primarily in the Middle East, Europe, and Northeast Asia [19] - 38% of companies intend to shift more orders to overseas factories, with expectations that the share of overseas production orders will rise from 44% in 2024 to 59% in 2025 [21] - 63% of companies plan to relocate some production out of mainland China, with 41% citing US tariffs as a significant motivating factor [23] - 78% of companies have received support from the government, mainly in areas such as market expansion, employment, and credit [26] - The combination of market diversification and production layout adjustments, along with policy support, raises questions about the ability to stabilize export volumes [29]