Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) Zheng Quan Ri Bao·2025-08-04 16:10Group 1 - The overall financial growth remains reasonable, supporting the real economy, with expectations for an increase in new social financing in July compared to the previous year [1][2] - Predictions for new RMB loans in July vary among experts, with estimates ranging from 2000 billion to 3500 billion RMB, indicating a potential increase in credit supply due to supportive monetary policies [1][2] - The central bank continues to inject liquidity to enhance banks' lending capabilities, while regulatory efforts are focused on accelerating the disbursement of loans for real estate projects [1][3] Group 2 - New social financing (社融) is expected to show significant year-on-year growth, with estimates around 1.46 trillion to 1.7 trillion RMB for July, driven primarily by government bond financing [2] - The net financing scale of government bonds is projected to be approximately 1.27 trillion RMB, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase [2] - The central bank plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, potentially implementing interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to further stimulate credit growth and support economic recovery [3]