Archer Daniels Q2 Earnings: Will Soft Segment Trends Mar Results?

Core Viewpoint - Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) is expected to report declines in both earnings and revenues for the second quarter of 2025, with earnings estimated at 88 cents per share, reflecting a 14.6% decrease year-over-year, and revenues projected at $21.1 billion, indicating a 5.1% dip from the previous year [1][2][11] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ADM's earnings is 88 cents per share, down 14.6% from the same quarter last year, with a 7.4% decrease in the consensus mark over the past 30 days [2] - Revenue expectations are set at $21.1 billion, which represents a 5.1% decline compared to the year-ago quarter [2] - In the last reported quarter, ADM had an earnings surprise of 1.5% but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 5.4% over the last four quarters [3] Segment Performance - The Ag Services and Oilseeds segment is facing challenges due to sluggish market conditions, including increased cost inflation and depressed vegetable oil demand, leading to expected lower results year-over-year [4][6] - The Ag Services and Oilseeds segment's revenues are estimated at $16.2 billion, suggesting a 6.7% year-over-year decline [8] - The Carbohydrate Solutions segment is projected to generate revenues of $2.9 billion, indicating a slight decline of 0.9% year-over-year [8] - Conversely, the Nutrition segment is expected to see revenues of $1.9 billion, reflecting a 0.8% year-over-year growth, driven by improvements in operational structure and capacity [9][11] Market Conditions and Management Outlook - Management has expressed caution regarding the second-half outlook for crush margin improvement, noting that current domestic crush replacement margins are below expectations [7] - There are signs of weakening customer demand in certain markets, leading to reduced volume expectations [7] - The company is actively managing productivity and innovation, focusing on food security and health trends, which is expected to support margins in the upcoming quarter [10] Valuation and Market Performance - ADM is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 12.29X, which is below both its five-year high of 18.93X and the industry average of 14.77X, indicating an attractive valuation opportunity [13] - Over the past three months, ADM's shares have increased by 13.4%, outperforming the industry growth of 11.6% [14]