Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pig price has retreated from its high, with the latest price at 14.94 CNY/kg and the average weight at 128.64 kg. The complete cost for leading enterprises has decreased to around 12 CNY/kg, indicating a potential for profit maintenance and valuation recovery [6][17][18] - The report emphasizes a shift from cyclical thinking to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [18] - The report recommends focusing on companies with a "platform + ecosystem" model, highlighting DeKang Agriculture and Livestock as a representative, along with leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [18] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is 14.94 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in average weight to 128.64 kg. The price of 15 kg piglets remains stable at around 530 CNY/head. The industry is experiencing a short-term rebound in prices after a slight decline [6][17] - The official number of breeding sows in May was 40.42 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.15%, indicating a stable production capacity [7][17] - The report suggests that the government's commitment to stabilizing pig prices is strong, and capacity regulation may continue to increase [7][17] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of parent stock chicks remains high, with the latest price at 47.93 CNY, a week-on-week increase of 5.25%. The price of broilers is 2.95 CNY/kg, down 12% week-on-week and 18% year-on-year [19] - The industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, leading to a reduction in production capacity among breeding farms [19] - The report highlights two main lines of focus: quality imported breeding stock leaders and fully integrated industry leaders [19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Hai Da Group, noting a cash flow turning point and high overseas growth potential. The demand for aquaculture feed is expected to recover in 2025 [20][22] - The report indicates that the domestic capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [21][22] 4. Pet Industry - The report discusses the impact of potential tariffs on the pet industry, suggesting that the actual impact will be limited due to high profit margins and overseas factory layouts [23] - Companies with strong performance in their own brands, such as Guibao and Zhongchong, are highlighted as key focuses [23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight reduction in soybean planting area for 2025, with a forecast of 83.4 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [24] - The report emphasizes that agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, and a reduction in imports may help prices rise from low levels [24] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3982 points, up 1.54% from the previous week. The Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2729 points, up 2.55% [25][28] - The report notes that the aquaculture sector performed the best with a 5.13% increase [25]

The Zacks Agriculture – Operations industry is poised to benefit from continuous innovation and rising demand for health-conscious products. As more consumers focus on healthier diets, alternative protein use is expected to increase. The industry's growth is also anticipated to be driven by acquisitions, joint ventures and expansion strategies. Momentum is likely to be supported by advances in food processing, enhanced grain-handling techniques, greater storage capacity and strong demand from emerging marke ...

Core Insights - Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE: ADM) faced significant challenges in the first half of 2025, including thin soybean margins, policy confusion regarding renewable fuels, and the reintroduction of tariffs on key products [1] Financial Performance - The company experienced pressure on its profitability due to the aforementioned factors, particularly the impact of low soybean margins [1] Market Environment - The agribusiness sector is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by regulatory changes and market dynamics, which are affecting companies like ADM [1]

Core Insights - Dividend yield is a key metric for identifying dividend stocks, reflecting the amount of a company's dividend as a percentage of its stock price, which can fluctuate daily [1] - A strong balance sheet, indicated by a low debt-to-equity ratio, is essential for long-term dividend sustainability [2][3] Company Summaries Costco - Costco has a dividend yield of 0.53% with an annual dividend of $5.20 and a 22-year track record of dividend increases [5] - The company has delivered a total return of over 266% over the past five years, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21%, indicating strong financial health [6] - Investors should focus on the 12.7% average dividend growth over the last three years rather than the current yield [7] Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) - ADM boasts a dividend yield of 3.86% with an annual dividend of $2.04 and a 53-year history of dividend increases [8] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.34%, suggesting a stable dividend outlook [8] - However, ADM's growth is closely tied to commodity prices, which are cyclical, making it less defensive compared to consumer staples [9] Medtronic - Medtronic has a dividend yield of 3.26% with an annual dividend of $2.84 and a 49-year history of dividend increases [11] - The company is well-positioned in the aging population market and in AI and machine learning, with a debt-to-equity ratio of around 0.53% [12][13] - Despite its potential, Medtronic is not currently highlighted as a top buy by analysts, indicating some caution among investors [14]

Unlocking Nature. Enriching Life. As of December 31, 2024 Safe Harbor Statement Some of our comments and materials in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, Company performance and financial results. These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risk and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with t ...

Core Point - The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on imports of L-lysine from China, following a request from the Lysine Fair Trade Coalition and its member companies [1] Group 1 - The investigation was prompted by a petition submitted on May 28, 2025, by the Lysine Fair Trade Coalition and member companies including Archer Daniels Midland Company, CJ Bio America, Inc., and Evonik Corporation [1]

Group 1 - Moretus Research provides high-quality equity research focused on U.S. public markets, aiming to deliver clarity, conviction, and alpha for serious investors [1] - The research framework identifies companies with durable business models, mispriced cash flow potential, and intelligent capital allocation, emphasizing a structured and repeatable approach [1] - Valuation methods are based on sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model and capital structure, prioritizing comparability, simplicity, and relevance [1] Group 2 - Research coverage focuses on underappreciated companies experiencing structural changes or temporary dislocations, where disciplined analysis can yield asymmetric returns [1] - Moretus Research aims to elevate the standard for independent investment research by providing professional-grade insights and actionable valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is facing a class action lawsuit alleging breaches of fiduciary duties by its board of directors, particularly concerning the performance and prospects of its Nutrition segment [1][3]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - The class action complaint was filed on January 24, 2024, covering a Class Period from April 30, 2020, to January 22, 2024 [1]. - The lawsuit claims that ADM has spent billions over the past decade to expand its Nutrition business to mitigate commodity price volatility in its traditional agricultural commodities trading [2]. Group 2: Allegations Against ADM - Defendants are accused of making false and misleading statements regarding the Nutrition segment's performance and accounting practices [3]. - Positive statements were made about the Nutrition segment being a future profit driver, capitalizing on healthier eating trends and rising consumer demand for natural ingredients [3]. - There was an implication that the growth of the Nutrition segment would enhance diversification and earnings stability for ADM [3].

Core Viewpoint - Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) shares have declined by approximately 1.3% since the last earnings report, underperforming the S&P 500, raising questions about future performance leading up to the next earnings release [1]. Group 1: Earnings and Estimates - Fresh estimates for ADM have remained flat over the past month, with the consensus estimate shifting down by 6.86% [2]. - The most recent earnings report for ADM is essential to understand the key drivers affecting the stock's performance [1]. Group 2: VGM Scores - ADM currently holds a subpar Growth Score of D, while its Momentum Score is rated B, indicating better performance in that area [3]. - The stock has received an A grade on the value side, placing it in the top quintile for this investment strategy, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of C [3]. Group 3: Outlook - ADM has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting expectations of below-average returns in the upcoming months [4]. Group 4: Industry Comparison - ADM is part of the Zacks Agriculture - Operations industry, where competitor FMC has seen a gain of 20.8% over the past month [5]. - FMC reported revenues of $791.4 million for the last quarter, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 13.8%, with EPS dropping from $0.36 to $0.18 [5]. - For the current quarter, FMC is projected to post earnings of $0.60 per share, indicating a year-over-year change of -4.8%, with a slight increase of 0.8% in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the last 30 days [6].

Core Viewpoint - Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) is facing significant challenges due to a dynamic market landscape, weak conditions, tariffs, and trade policy uncertainty, particularly in its Ag Services and Oilseeds unit [1][4]. Financial Performance - ADM's shares have declined by 19% over the past year, underperforming the Consumer Staples sector's increase of 5.9% and the S&P 500 index's increase of 10.7% [2]. - The stock's decline is more pronounced than the Agriculture - Operations industry's dip of 1.8% [2]. Segment Performance - The Ag Services and Oilseeds segment is experiencing headwinds from market dislocations, increased cost inflation, and lower margins in the Crushing subsegment due to elevated industry capacity and competitive meal exports from Argentina [4]. - In the Refined Products and Other segment, biodiesel margins are negatively impacted by biofuel and trade policy uncertainty, weak oil demand, and higher crush capacity [5]. Market Challenges - Ongoing price weakness in main feed ration commodities and compliance with evolving regulations are significant deterrents for the company [6]. - Management has noted signs of weakening customer demand, particularly in carb solutions, leading to reduced volume expectations for certain markets and products [7]. Earnings Outlook - Management has not provided a segment operating profit outlook for future quarters due to tariff policy uncertainty and macroeconomic conditions [8]. - For 2025, adjusted earnings per share are projected to be between $4 and $4.75, with expectations leaning towards the lower end [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS has decreased by 4% to $4.07, and for 2026, it has dropped by 4.6% to $4.61 [9]. Strategic Initiatives - Despite current challenges, ADM is implementing strategies to return to growth by managing productivity, innovation, and aligning with trends in food security and health [11]. - The company is focusing on strengthening internal controls, improving operational performance, and simplifying its portfolio to enhance core competencies [11].