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阿里巴巴-W(09988.HK):预计云业务维持高增速 闪购补贴或影响利润
Ge Long Hui·2025-08-04 18:30

Group 1: Financial Performance Forecast - The company expects FY26Q1 revenue to be 266 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 9.4% [1] - Adjusted EBITA is projected to be 35.3 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 21.7%, with an EBITA margin of 13.3% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is anticipated to be 31.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 22.7% [1] Group 2: Taobao and Local Life - Taobao's revenue is expected to grow by 6.9% year-over-year in FY26Q1, while adjusted EBITA is forecasted to decline by 3.2% [1] - The company plans to implement a 50 billion yuan subsidy program for Taobao Flash Sales over the next 12 months, aiming to boost consumer and merchant engagement [2] - Daily order volume for Taobao Flash Sales reached a record high of 80 million, with active users increasing by 15% [2] Group 3: Cloud Business - Cloud business revenue is projected to grow by 19.8% year-over-year in FY26Q1, with adjusted EBITA increasing by 15.7% [2] - The company launched the Qwen3 model, which has shown competitive results in various benchmark tests [2] - Alibaba Cloud holds a 33% market share in China's cloud services, ranking first in the region [2] Group 4: International E-commerce - International business revenue is expected to rise by 21.9% year-over-year in FY26Q1, with adjusted EBITA increasing by 51.8% [3] - The company is focusing on strategic markets in Europe and the Middle East, with different business models for various regions [3] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company anticipates steady revenue growth in FY26Q1, although profits may be impacted by the flash sales subsidy [3] - Revenue forecasts for FY2026-2028 have been revised upward to 1,080.9 billion yuan, 1,105.7 billion yuan, and 1,179.8 billion yuan respectively [3] - Non-GAAP net profit projections for FY2026-2028 are also increased to 138.2 billion yuan, 185.9 billion yuan, and 195.7 billion yuan respectively [3]