高估值遇上疲软经济，华尔街齐示警：标普500或将下跌10%至15%

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from major Wall Street firms are warning clients to prepare for a potential pullback in the U.S. stock market due to high valuations clashing with weakening economic data [1][3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson predicts a potential adjustment of up to 10% in the S&P 500 index this quarter, citing tariffs impacting consumer and corporate finances [3]. - Evercore's Julian Emanuel forecasts a possible decline of up to 15% [3]. - Deutsche Bank analysts, led by Parag Thatte, note that the market has risen for three consecutive months, indicating that a pullback is overdue [3]. Group 2: Economic Concerns - Recent data shows rising inflation in the U.S., alongside slowing job growth and consumer spending, raising concerns about the economic outlook [3]. - Historically, the S&P 500 has performed poorly in August and September, averaging a decline of 0.7% during these months compared to an average increase of 1.1% in other months [4]. Group 3: Market Indicators - The S&P 500's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently surpassed 76, indicating overbought conditions, which is above the 70 threshold considered "overheated" by technical analysts [4]. - Options trading indicates increasing market concern about a downturn, with the implied volatility premium for put options on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) reaching its highest level since the regional banking crisis in 2023 [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term bearish sentiment, analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook, suggesting that clients should hold positions, particularly in companies benefiting from the AI boom [4]. - Historical data suggests that the S&P 500 typically experiences a small pullback of about 3% every 1.5 to 2 months and a larger pullback of over 5% every 3 to 4 months [4]. - Analysts recommend buying during pullbacks, indicating a strategy to capitalize on market corrections [4].