日本股市“黑周一”：日经狂泻900点破4万，日元跳水、银行股重挫，央行加息预期陡升？

Market Performance - The Japanese stock market opened lower on August 4, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 900 points, falling below the 40,000 mark to a low of 39,851, representing a nearly 3% decline [1] - Bank stocks experienced a collective downturn, with the Tokyo Stock Exchange Bank Index falling over 4%, and major banks like Mizuho Financial Group and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group seeing declines of nearly 5% and over 4%, respectively [1] Currency and Bond Market - The Japanese yen experienced a sharp decline against the US dollar, while the 5-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 9 basis points to 0.99% [3] - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive time it has remained unchanged, but raised its core CPI inflation forecast for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 [3] Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan adjusted its inflation risk assessment from "tending to decline" to "overall balanced," increasing the inflation rate forecast for 2025 (excluding fresh food) from 2.2% to 2.7% [3] - A Bloomberg survey indicated that 42% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in October, an increase from 32% in the previous survey, with some respondents suggesting a possible rate hike as early as September [3] Investment Strategy - The CEO of the Norinchukin Bank, Taro Kitabayashi, stated that after incurring a loss of approximately $12 billion in US Treasury investments, the bank will adopt a more cautious approach, correcting "imbalances" and reducing exposure to the US market while planning to diversify its investment portfolio [3]