“滞胀”2H25 vs “赢麻”2026，美股该涨还是该跌？

Group 1 - Major tech companies like Meta and Microsoft have shown solid performance, while Apple has also delivered stable results despite recent weaker performance [1] - Overall, most companies in this earnings season have seen their stock prices decline after reporting, except for those that significantly exceeded expectations [1] - The market appears to have priced in strong earnings already, leading to high valuations and increased sensitivity to negative news [3] Group 2 - Recent developments in three key areas: fiscal debt issuance, TGA (Treasury General Account) rebuilding, and interest rate expectations have been observed [4][6] - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue a net $1 trillion in debt in Q3, with an additional $590 billion in Q4, while maintaining a consistent issuance structure for medium to long-term bonds [4] - The Federal Reserve has maintained its interest rate levels, with no preset plans for a rate cut in September, emphasizing a data-driven approach to future decisions [10][12] Group 3 - Economic indicators suggest a state of "stagflation" characterized by rising prices, stagnant employment growth, and weakening domestic demand, despite a reported GDP growth of 3% [16][17] - The market seems to be ignoring the potential for sustained high interest rates in the second half of the year, focusing instead on narratives of fiscal and monetary easing [18] - The performance of individual companies, particularly in the advertising sector, indicates that the economic situation may not be as dire as suggested by macroeconomic data [18] Group 4 - The virtual investment portfolio "Alpha Dolphin" has not made any adjustments and has outperformed benchmark indices, with a 92.6% absolute return since inception [19][22] - The portfolio's performance is attributed to a defensive asset allocation, with significant holdings in gold, cash, and U.S. Treasuries [24] - Upcoming earnings reports from various companies, including AMD, Disney, and Uber, are expected to provide insights into the economic landscape and sector performance [25][26]