信贷市场“盲目乐观”？瑞银警告美国高收益债风险溢价逼近历史低点

Group 1 - UBS indicates that complacency in the U.S. corporate credit market has surpassed that of the stock market, with current corporate bond valuations nearing multi-decade highs [1] - The risk premium for U.S. high-yield bonds is currently only about 0.5 percentage points above a ten-year low, suggesting a high level of investor confidence [1] - Investors in high-yield bonds are betting on global economic growth exceeding 5% this year, significantly higher than expectations in other markets [4] Group 2 - UBS forecasts a global economic growth rate of 2.7% for 2025, with stock market implied growth at 4.5%, while forex, interest rates, and commodities markets indicate lower growth expectations [4] - The report highlights that complacency in credit markets is a central topic in discussions with investors, with both U.S. and European markets showing a mix of optimism and potential risks, but the U.S. market appears more blindly optimistic [4] - Recent data shows that investment-grade bond spreads narrowed to their lowest level since December last year, but then experienced the largest increase since early April due to weak employment reports and new tariff policies [4] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that the U.S. credit market has resilience to labor market fluctuations, but recent cases indicate that spreads for investment-grade and high-yield bonds could widen by 20 basis points and 75 basis points, respectively [4] - The report warns that credit fund managers currently have a beta coefficient above average, indicating that some institutions may be increasing risk in pursuit of excess returns, despite such strategies yielding lower returns than historical averages this year [4]