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在“反内卷”浪潮中,谁将收益?
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-04 23:51

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in China's industrial strategy from "expansion" to "high-quality development," emphasizing the need to eliminate "involutionary competition" across various sectors, including photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy and Strategic Direction - The Central Financial and Economic Committee has elevated the goal of "breaking down involutionary competition" to a national strategy, indicating a broader and deeper impact on strategic emerging industries [1][2]. - The Central Political Bureau meeting in July 2024 highlighted the need to strengthen industry self-discipline and prevent "involutionary" competition, marking a significant policy shift [2]. - The government work report in March 2025 included "comprehensive rectification of involutionary competition" as a key task, signaling a commitment to address this issue [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Response and Actions - Various industries are actively responding to the call for "anti-involution," with major photovoltaic glass companies announcing a collective production cut of 30% starting July [4]. - The China Cement Association has issued guidelines to promote "anti-involution" and high-quality development in the cement industry [4]. - Key automotive companies have publicly committed to reducing payment terms for suppliers to no more than 60 days, reflecting a shift towards more sustainable practices [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Industries that may benefit first from the "anti-involution" trend include those with slowing capital expenditure but signs of profit recovery, such as wind power equipment, common steel, cement, and glass fiber [5]. - Sectors experiencing a downturn but facing urgent "anti-involution" policy needs, like photovoltaic equipment and medical devices, are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries [5]. - The ChiNext Index (399006) is positioned as a key vehicle for capturing policy dividends and opportunities in industrial upgrades, focusing on sectors supported by government policies [6][8]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Market Reaction - The ChiNext Index has shown strong financial performance, with a five-year annualized revenue growth rate of 21.2% and a net profit growth rate of 24.2%, outperforming major indices [8]. - Following the Central Financial and Economic Committee's signals in July, sectors like steel, photovoltaics, and automobiles saw rapid gains, indicating market sensitivity to policy changes [10]. - The current valuation of the ChiNext Index is at a near ten-year low, suggesting significant potential for growth as profitability improves [10].