美元退潮与美联储降息预期点燃风险偏好! 新兴市场资产吹响反攻号角

Group 1 - The benchmark index measuring sovereign currencies and stocks in developing economies has risen, marking its best performance in recent months due to a rebound in risk assets amid speculation of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar [1][2] - Investment institutions are increasingly optimistic about emerging market assets, with firms like JPMorgan and Amundi SA shifting their focus from developed markets to emerging markets like China, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions [1][8] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index has increased by nearly 0.5%, achieving its largest single-day gain in over a month, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index rose by 0.9%, outperforming developed market indices [1] Group 2 - Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark interest rate as early as next month, with market concerns about the independence of the Fed and statistical agencies growing due to recent personnel changes [2][7] - The non-farm payroll report for July showed only 73,000 jobs added, with downward revisions to previous months' data totaling 258,000 jobs, leading to a significant increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts [5][6] - The Philippine peso has performed best among emerging market currencies, with most Asian currencies strengthening against the dollar, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut [7] Group 3 - The argument for a bearish dollar index remains valid, as expectations of Fed rate cuts are likely to support emerging markets despite potential market volatility [5] - The ongoing trade policies and immigration restrictions under the Trump administration have contributed to the decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, prompting a shift in investment strategies towards emerging markets [8][9] - JPMorgan has reaffirmed its bullish stance on emerging market stocks, citing strong performance and favorable macroeconomic drivers, while Amundi SA has also shifted its asset allocation towards Europe and emerging markets [8][9]