旧金山联储主席：今年可能降息多于两次

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, indicates that there are increasing signs of a softening U.S. labor market, and there is no evidence that tariff-induced price increases are broadly permeating inflation data [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - The timing for interest rate cuts is gradually approaching, with Daly expressing discomfort over repeatedly making the same policy decisions [1] - The Federal Reserve's forecast of two rate cuts this year (each by 0.25 percentage points) remains appropriate, emphasizing that the key issue is whether to cut rates rather than when to do so, with the possibility of more than two cuts [1] - If inflation rebounds or the labor market strengthens, the number of rate cuts may be fewer than two, but it is more likely that more than two cuts will be necessary [1] Group 2: Employment Market Analysis - Non-farm payroll data does not necessarily indicate an extremely weak labor market, but a comprehensive view of multiple employment indicators shows a clear softening compared to last year [1] - Daly warns that if the Federal Reserve waits too long to confirm that inflation will not have a transmission effect, it may be too late [1]