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美联储降息救市!8月4日,今日五大消息已全面发酵!
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-05 00:45

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant turmoil in global financial markets, driven by political statements, Federal Reserve dynamics, and economic data, indicating a potential shift away from the dollar's dominance and the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing interest rates and inflation. Group 1: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is facing a critical moment with a 96.9% probability of maintaining interest rates in July and a 62.6% expectation of a rate cut in September [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have intensified, with members split into three camps regarding interest rate policy, reflecting differing views on inflation and economic conditions [4] - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged with a 9:2 vote, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members opposed the mainstream decision [7] Group 2: Market Reactions - Trump's call for an immediate 300 basis point rate cut led to panic in the markets, with gold prices surging by $20 and the dollar index dropping by 25 points [3] - Following Trump's retraction of his dismissal threat against Powell, market volatility persisted, indicating a fragile confidence in the Federal Reserve's independence [3] - The bond market reacted sharply, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%, signaling the onset of a "long-term high interest rate era" [6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3.0%, exceeding expectations, but analysts pointed out that the actual growth rate, after adjusting for imports and inventory changes, was only 1.14% [8] - Inflation remains a concern, with the core CPI rising 2.9% year-on-year, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, driven in part by tariffs [4] Group 4: Commodity Market Movements - Gold futures prices reached a historic peak of $3444 per ounce, while silver prices also surged, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid market uncertainty [7] - Contrastingly, the Chinese gold market experienced a decline, with significant drops in retail gold prices, indicating divergent market behaviors between East and West [7]