徽商期货：市场降息预期重燃，黄金逢低做多为主

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected significant decline in US non-farm employment data for July has reignited market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, leading to lower interest rates and a drop in the US dollar index, which has boosted precious metal prices [1][4]. Group 1: Labor Market - The US labor market showed a sharp downturn, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, far below the expected 104,000, and the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [3]. - The Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly revised down the employment data for May and June, with May's job additions adjusted from 144,000 to just 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total reduction of 258,000 jobs for those two months [3]. - The private sector added 83,000 jobs in July, while federal government employment decreased by 12,000, indicating ongoing layoffs [3]. Group 2: Trade Relations - The global trade situation has stabilized, with the US reinstating "reciprocal tariffs" on August 7 and reaching preliminary agreements with several economies, including the UK, Vietnam, and the EU [2]. - Despite the tariff adjustments, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized that the negotiation window remains open, indicating ongoing discussions [2]. - The recent US-China trade talks led by Vice Premier He Lifeng and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin have resulted in a consensus to extend certain tariffs and countermeasures for an additional 90 days [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have increased, particularly with the upcoming departure of Governor Quarles, which has raised concerns about the Fed's policy independence [4]. - The announcement of Quarles' resignation has heightened expectations for a rate cut in September, as President Trump expressed satisfaction with the opportunity to nominate a new Fed governor [4]. - The reduction in tariff uncertainties has improved market risk appetite, suggesting that gold may experience a period of volatility, with silver likely following gold's trend [4].