Group 1 - Geopolitical conflicts have heightened market risk aversion, leading to a more than 4% increase in gold-related ETFs, while the S&P oil and gas ETF fell nearly 3%, indicating a sharp adjustment in risk expectations [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has strengthened to 78% according to CME, and central banks, particularly China, have been continuously increasing gold reserves for 18 consecutive months [3] - Historical data shows that extreme divergence between gold and oil and gas often signals an impending market shift, suggesting that the current asset reallocation reflects both short-term emotional responses and long-term inflation concerns [4] Group 2 - The surge in U.S. crude oil inventories and the increasing penetration of electric vehicles are suppressing demand expectations, while geopolitical premiums are being realized ahead of time [4] - Smart money is showing a preference for gold mining stock ETFs due to their greater elasticity, while there has been a significant increase in bearish options positions in the oil and gas sector [4] - The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has strengthened, indicating a shift in investor behavior as risk aversion becomes the dominant market theme [4]
凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司：黄金ETF大涨 油气ETF重挫
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-05 02:10