“反内卷”指令高悬，行业能否度过危机？| 光伏大战⑦

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing severe internal competition and overcapacity, leading to significant price declines and widespread losses among manufacturers, particularly among leading companies [1][5][38]. Group 1: Industry Overview - As of 2023, the silicon material production capacity has been further released, resulting in intense competition within the photovoltaic manufacturing sector [1]. - The nominal overcapacity rate in the industry may reach 66%, with continuous planning and investment in new capacities [1]. - Most mainstream manufacturing companies are operating at a loss, with many small and medium-sized enterprises facing layoffs, production halts, and potential liquidation [1][5]. Group 2: Government Response - The issue of internal competition has garnered high-level attention, prompting the central government to issue important directives aimed at addressing the crisis [5][6]. - Key meetings and reports have established a framework for preventing "involutionary" competition and facilitating the exit of inefficient capacities from the market [5][6][39]. - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law, effective from October 15, 2025, incorporates measures against "involution," reinforcing constraints on low-price dumping behaviors [6]. Group 3: Causes of Involution - The root cause of the internal competition is a severe mismatch between supply and demand, leading to overproduction and subsequent price declines [7][9]. - In situations of excessive supply, prices drop below average costs, resulting in a complex cycle of competition that exacerbates the crisis [8][9]. Group 4: Policy Options - Two main approaches to address the internal competition are proposed: allowing the market to self-correct or implementing policy interventions to expedite the exit of outdated capacities [10][12]. - Various policy measures under consideration include price limits, production limits, investment restrictions, efficiency improvements, and mergers [14][19][21]. - The effectiveness of these policies varies, with investment and efficiency measures deemed most effective, while price limits may complicate the situation further [39]. Group 5: Demand-Side Policies - Demand-side policies are crucial for addressing the current crisis, as the industry faces a significant decline in demand due to recent regulatory changes [24][25]. - The introduction of the 136 document has shifted the investment landscape, leading to a sharp decline in new photovoltaic projects [25][26]. - Effective demand-side policies should focus on expanding and stimulating demand rather than reducing it, with suggestions for local policy adjustments and market price liberalization [33][41].