政策+周期双驱动！产能调控推进，畜牧养殖ETF（516670）布局生猪养殖全产业链

Core Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a meeting focused on the high-quality development of the pig industry, emphasizing the need to reduce production capacity, control operations, and lower the weight of pigs, marking a significant phase in capacity regulation [1][3]. Group 1: Production Capacity Management - The national target for the breeding sow inventory has been adjusted down by 1 million heads to alleviate supply surplus pressure [3]. - Measures include halting secondary fattening and controlling the market behavior to prevent excessive inventory [3]. - The target for the average slaughter weight is set around 120 kg to avoid overstocking and subsequent supply excess [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - As of July 30, the national average price of live pigs reached 6.98 yuan per jin, marking a new low for the year [5]. - Historical data indicates that if the breeding sow inventory decreases to 39 million heads, pig prices could rise by 11%-19% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, reflecting a price elasticity driven by supply improvements [7]. - The current valuation of the livestock sector is at a historical low, with the China Livestock Index at a price-to-book ratio of only 2.67, placing it in the 12th percentile historically [7]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Low cost is identified as the core competitive advantage for listed pig companies to navigate the pig cycle, with a focus on companies that excel in cost control or have clear cost-reduction pathways [1][8]. - The recovery of livestock inventory is expected to gradually boost demand for feed, while the approaching high temperatures will lead to a sales peak for aquatic feed [1][9]. - The Livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Index, with over 60% of its components related to pig farming, and nearly 40% encompassing upstream and downstream sectors such as vaccines and feed [10][14].