通胀降温遇关税加征！韩国央行降息预期升温

Core Viewpoint - The slowing consumer inflation in South Korea provides more reasons for the central bank to consider restarting the interest rate cut cycle, especially in light of the economic impact from increased U.S. tariffs on imports [1][4]. Inflation Data - In July, consumer prices in South Korea rose by 2.1% year-on-year, a decrease from 2.2% in June, aligning with economists' median forecasts [1]. - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy prices, remained stable at 2% in July, unchanged from June [1]. Economic Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. recently decided to impose a 15% tariff on most South Korean imports, raising concerns as South Korea's annual export value accounts for over 40% of its GDP [4]. - The central bank's policy committee is set to meet on August 28, with some economists predicting a potential 25 basis point rate cut due to the economic pressures from tariffs and the need to balance housing price stability [4]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market in Seoul remains active, but the rate of price increase has slowed, with the price growth for apartments in the week of July 28 dropping to 0.12%, significantly lower than the recent peak of 0.43% in June [4]. - The Bank of Korea is cautious about excessive stimulus that could exacerbate real estate speculation and increase household debt levels [4]. Economic Outlook - Economists express concerns about weak growth prospects, indicating that the central bank has signaled a continued push for rate cuts [5]. - The recent strengthening of the Korean won against the dollar has also created conditions for the authorities to consider easing monetary policy [5].