北美观察丨一位理事 一场震荡：全球聚焦美联储独立性

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is set to announce new nominees for the Federal Reserve Board, which has significant implications for U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the Fed [1][4][20] Group 1: Importance of Federal Reserve Board Nomination - The Federal Reserve Board has seven members responsible for setting national monetary policy, supervising financial institutions, and managing liquidity and inflation expectations [5] - The recent vacancy due to the resignation of a board member provides Trump with a critical opportunity to influence the Fed's direction, especially amid current economic challenges [5][9] - The new appointee could shift the balance within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), impacting interest rates and asset pricing [5][8] Group 2: Potential Nominees - Trump may consider several candidates, including Scott Basset, Kevin Walsh, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher Waller, each with distinct policy orientations [9][12] - Basset is closely aligned with Trump and supports aggressive rate cuts, while Walsh has a more moderate stance with a history at the Fed [9][12] - The choice of nominee will likely affect the Senate confirmation process and the future direction of monetary policy [12] Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Following Trump's announcement, bond markets reacted swiftly, with increased expectations for early rate cuts [13] - Concerns have emerged regarding the potential erosion of the Fed's independence, which could undermine the dollar's status as a safe asset [17][20] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that political interference in central bank independence could jeopardize macroeconomic stability and market confidence [20]