Group 1: Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, international gold prices fluctuated at high levels, briefly surpassing $2300 per ounce, marking a new peak. The second half of 2025 presents mixed market sentiments regarding gold's trajectory, influenced by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and rising attractiveness of risk assets due to improved economic soft landing expectations [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy indicates that declining interest rates will support gold prices. As inflation cools and core CPI drops to around 3.1%, the Fed has signaled a potential interest rate cut cycle starting in 2025 [2][4] - A 25 basis point rate cut has already occurred, bringing the rate to 4.75%, with another cut anticipated within the year [3] Group 3: Geopolitical and Financial Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, along with emerging market debt risks, contribute to persistent risk aversion among investors. This environment enhances gold's appeal as a traditional hedge against risk [5][6] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks have shown strong demand for gold, with net purchases reaching 336 tons in the first half of 2025, a 14% year-on-year increase. Major buyers include China, India, and Russia, driven by diversification of foreign reserves and inflation hedging [8] Group 5: Supply Constraints - Despite high gold prices encouraging some mine restarts, global gold supply is projected to grow only modestly, with an estimated production of 3600 tons in 2025, reflecting a mere 1.3% increase year-on-year. Supply constraints are influenced by environmental regulations, rising costs, and aging mines [8]
2025年下半年金价还会涨吗?美元利率与避险情绪的博弈
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-05 02:51