温彬：国债等债券恢复征收增值税对债券投资的影响

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new policy to reinstate value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting August 8, 2025, while maintaining tax exemptions for existing bonds until maturity [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Background and Adjustment Motives - The tax exemption policy for bond interest income began in 2016 to enhance the attractiveness of government bonds and promote institutional investor growth [2]. - The recent policy adjustment is motivated by the need to optimize the tax system in light of the significant growth of China's bond market, which is now the second largest globally [2][3]. - The new policy is expected to generate approximately 5 billion yuan in additional tax revenue in 2025 and an average of 24 billion yuan annually thereafter, aiding in fiscal sustainability [3]. Group 2: Specific Changes in Tax Policy and Institutional Differences - The new VAT policy will impose a 6% standard tax rate on banks, insurance companies, and securities firms, while public funds and other asset management products will face a 3% simplified tax rate [4]. - The effective tax rate for banks holding newly issued bonds will rise from 0% to approximately 6.34%, leading to a decrease in after-tax yields [4][5]. - Public funds retain significant tax advantages, including exemptions from capital gains tax and corporate income tax, which may further widen the tax gap compared to self-managed institutions [4]. Group 3: Impact on Bond Types and Market Structure - The reinstatement of VAT will lead to a revaluation of different bond types, creating a tax spread between new and existing bonds [8]. - The market may split into "old bond" and "new bond" segments, with existing bonds benefiting from tax exemptions, potentially reducing their liquidity in the secondary market [9]. - The relative attractiveness of credit bonds is expected to increase as their tax treatment remains unchanged, potentially compressing credit spreads [12]. Group 4: Impact on Long and Short-Term Government Bond Yield Curves - Long-term bonds, particularly 30-year government bonds, will experience a more significant tax impact, leading to increased yield pressures [13]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds in August may further influence the demand for tax-exempt old bonds, affecting the yield curve [13]. Group 5: Impact on Bank Investment Behavior - The new VAT policy is likely to increase pressure on bank returns, prompting a shift towards trading activities and a reduction in the proportion of bonds held to maturity [14]. - Banks may prioritize holding tax-exempt old bonds as strategic assets, leading to a potential increase in demand for these securities [15]. - The adjustment in tax policy may drive banks to optimize their tax burdens by investing in public bond funds, significantly reducing their effective tax rates [16].