银价突破压力位在即？工业需求复苏能否点燃上涨行情

Core Viewpoint - The silver price is experiencing a moderate increase in the first half of 2025, rising from $22 per ounce at the beginning of the year to a peak of approximately $28.5 per ounce in June, but has struggled to break through the key resistance level of $30. The second half of 2025 may see renewed investor interest due to a more accommodative macro environment and signs of industrial recovery. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has completed its first rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.75%, with expectations for another cut later in the year as inflation approaches target levels. This easing monetary policy benefits the precious metals sector [1] - The decline in the dollar index and real interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding silver, leading to a shift in risk appetite towards physical assets [1] - Historically, each round of Fed rate cuts has benefited gold and silver, with silver typically lagging behind gold in price increases [1] Group 2: Industrial Demand - Approximately 60% of silver demand comes from industrial applications, particularly in the electronics and photovoltaic sectors. The Silver Institute's Q2 2025 report indicates that global photovoltaic capacity is growing faster than expected, with significant increases in silver usage in new battery technologies [2] - The semiconductor market is recovering after two years of decline, driving demand for high-precision silver contacts [2] - Industrial silver demand is projected to grow to 560 million ounces in 2025, representing a nearly 7% year-over-year increase, supporting the fundamental price outlook for silver [3] Group 3: Investment Demand - Unlike gold, silver investment demand is more speculative. Although silver ETF holdings have increased in the first half of 2025, they have not returned to the highs seen during the pandemic in 2020 [5] - Investor sentiment regarding inflation remains divided, with some capital favoring gold over silver. The volatility of silver makes it less attractive to risk-averse institutional investors [5] - The appeal of risk assets like U.S. stocks and Bitcoin has diverted some funds away from precious metals [5] Group 4: Supply Constraints - While rising silver prices may encourage some mines to increase production, actual supply is constrained by resource depletion, environmental regulations, and insufficient capital expenditure. Global silver mine output is expected to grow by only about 2% in 2025 [7] - High-grade silver resources are concentrated in politically risky regions such as Mexico and Peru, and the supply from recycling is highly dependent on metal price fluctuations [7] - The limited elasticity of supply supports the potential for a mid-term price increase for silver [8] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Technically, silver has formed a wide consolidation range on the monthly chart, with $30 per ounce being a significant resistance level since 2013. A successful breakout would require favorable fundamentals and increased trading volume [9] - If silver can stabilize above $30, the next target range would be $32.5 to $35 per ounce [9] Summary - The potential for silver price increases in the second half of 2025 is supported by three main factors: a shift towards accommodative global monetary policy, a rapid recovery in industrial demand, particularly in the photovoltaic and electronics sectors, and a tightening supply-demand structure [10] - However, for silver to effectively break through the $30 level in the short term, sustained inflows into ETFs and confirmation from technical indicators will be necessary [10]