行业减产难度大且成本高！高盛重申卖出“光伏玻璃双雄”

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to face deeper downturns in profitability from the second half of 2025 to 2026 due to high production costs and weak demand [1][2]. Industry Summary - The photovoltaic glass industry is experiencing significant challenges, including difficulties in production cuts and high costs, leading to further declines in glass prices [1][3]. - Inventory levels among production companies have rapidly decreased since mid-July, driven by expectations of price increases and preemptive stockpiling by component manufacturers [2]. - Weekly glass shipment volumes surged to approximately 22 GW in the last week of July, nearly doubling from the average of 12 GW in early July, resulting in a reduction of inventory days from 33.4 to 22.6 [2]. Price and Cost Forecast - Due to the average age of industry furnaces, supply reductions will primarily occur through shutdowns rather than cold repairs, leading to increased production costs [3]. - A 15% reduction in capacity is projected to increase unit production costs by 10%, with costs rising significantly depending on the number of production lines shut down [3]. - Price forecasts for photovoltaic glass have been revised downwards by 9%-20% for Q3 2025 to 2026, now expected to be between 10-11 yuan per square meter, while maintaining a long-term price target of 13 yuan per square meter for late 2026 [3]. Company Performance - Both major players in the photovoltaic glass sector, Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass, reported disappointing earnings, prompting Goldman Sachs to maintain a "sell" rating [4]. - Xinyi Solar's revenue for H1 2025 fell by 7% to 10.9 billion yuan, with net profit plummeting 59% to 746 million yuan, significantly below Goldman Sachs' forecast [4]. - Flat Glass's preliminary net profit for Q2 2025 is expected to decline by 81%-88%, also falling short of expectations [4]. - Consequently, EBITDA forecasts for Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass for 2025-26 have been drastically reduced by 73% and 58%, respectively [4].