卓创资讯：7月生猪价多数时段下滑8月或延续短涨长跌态势

Core Viewpoint - In July, the national pig price experienced a pattern of initial increase followed by a decline and a slight rebound, primarily due to an oversupply caused by concentrated weight reduction in the breeding sector, with expectations of further supply increases and weak demand in August leading to a potential decline in prices [1][2]. Price Trends - The national pig price in July showed a "brief increase - high-level decline - end-of-month brief rebound" trend, with the highest price reaching 15.49 yuan/kg on the 3rd, a 3.96% increase from the previous month's peak, and the lowest price dropping to 13.92 yuan/kg on the 29th [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Side: The breeding sector is expected to continue weight reduction operations in August, with an increase in supply anticipated due to the ongoing release of production capacity. Additionally, adverse weather conditions may increase the likelihood of pig diseases, further impacting supply [2][3]. - Demand Side: The demand for pigs is expected to remain weak in August due to high temperatures, which will hinder consumption, and the absence of holidays or other supportive factors [2][3]. Market Sentiment - The active weight reduction in the breeding sector, combined with summer heat suppressing weight gain, is likely to result in an average market weight of around 123 kg for pigs in August and September. After the weight reduction phase, there may be a temporary decrease in supply, providing a window for replenishment, particularly in northern regions [3]. Price Forecast - Overall, in August, with the combination of increased supply and reduced demand, along with limited support from secondary fattening, pig prices are expected to decline month-on-month, with an average price forecast of 14.23 yuan/kg, exhibiting a trend of rise-fall-rise, where the rising periods are shorter than the falling ones [3].