Group 1 - Gold prices surged by 2.23% on August 1, reaching a one-week high of $3363.37 per ounce, driven by unexpectedly weak U.S. non-farm payroll data and increased safe-haven demand due to new tariff policies from the Trump administration [1][3] - The U.S. Labor Department reported only 73,000 new jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs, indicating a faster-than-expected economic slowdown [3] - Following the employment data release, gold prices jumped $38 within 15 minutes, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 100 points to 99.11, leading to a rise in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September from 45% to 75% [3] Group 2 - The average effective tariff rate on imported goods in the U.S. reached 18.3% as of July 31, the highest since 1934, impacting the global trade system [5] - Gold's monetary attributes are being reactivated as concerns over U.S. economic data and credibility grow, positioning gold as a valuable asset amid dollar credit loosening [5] - The long bullish candlestick for gold on August 1 indicates a technical breakout, surpassing the key resistance zone of $3300-$3310, with potential mid-term targets pointing towards $3500 if prices hold above $3350 [7] Group 3 - The current economic situation in the U.S. is characterized by persistent internal inflation and rising national debt, leading to increased investment in safe-haven assets like gold [8] - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve appears low in the short term due to inflation concerns, suggesting that gold will continue to experience high volatility [8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to manage expectations without immediate rate cuts, potentially delaying any action until the end of the year or even into next year, contributing to gold's high-level fluctuations [8]
CPT Markets外汇黄金分析：黄金暴涨！非农与关税引爆市场，降息预期成新引擎
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-05 03:14