?降息预期再升级! 旧金山联储主席戴利从观望转向支持降息 “三连降”摆上台面

Core Viewpoint - The San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicates that the timing for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts is approaching, with expectations for more than two rate cuts this year due to signs of a weakening labor market and lack of sustained inflation driven by tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market and Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 jobs added in July, with significant downward revisions of 258,000 jobs for May and June combined, marking a historic downward adjustment of 90% [1][3]. - Despite the weak employment figures, Daly believes that the labor market is not critically endangered, as the unemployment rate only rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [3][4]. - Daly emphasizes that various labor market indicators show clear signs of softening compared to last year [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a rate cut by the Fed in September is nearing 90%, a significant increase from less than 40% prior to the non-farm report [1]. - Rick Rieder from BlackRock suggests that the weak employment report provides crucial evidence for a potential 50 basis point rate cut in September, especially if labor market weakness continues [2]. - Daly maintains an open stance on rate cuts, indicating that if inflation rises or the labor market rebounds quickly, fewer than two cuts may be necessary, but more than two cuts are likely given the current economic conditions [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Policy Considerations - Daly notes that the Fed is in a "balancing zone," needing to assess how monetary policy can continue to exert downward pressure on inflation while ensuring sustainable employment growth [5]. - There are no signs that tariff-driven price increases are broadly affecting inflation data, and waiting too long to act could result in the Fed's actions being too late [4][5].