赵伟：美国劳动力市场——脆弱的“紧平衡”

Group 1 - The core issue of the recent U.S. employment data is the significant downward revision of employment figures for May and June, which raises questions about whether this is due to statistical factors or a weakening economy [1][3][8] - In July, non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, falling short of the market expectation of 104,000, while the revisions for May and June were down by 125,000 and 133,000 jobs respectively [3][4][5] - The downward revisions primarily affected government employment, indicating that the previously reported strong job growth was misleading [1][8] Group 2 - The labor market is entering a "loosened" phase, with both supply and demand weakening, making it difficult for the unemployment rate to decrease significantly [2][42] - The unemployment rate for July rose to 4.2%, aligning with market expectations, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2% [3][7] - The economic outlook for the second half of the year suggests a continuation of the slowdown, with factors such as increased tariffs and reduced consumer spending likely to suppress economic growth [2][4] Group 3 - Following the release of the July employment data, the market has priced in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [2][3] - The market reaction included a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, alongside an increase in gold prices, indicating a shift towards "recession trading" [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's focus on the unemployment rate rather than non-farm payroll numbers suggests that a rate cut may be contingent on unemployment exceeding 4.3% [2][3]