当全世界的面，鲍威尔硬刚特朗普，7月不降息，9月降息也悬了？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting where rates remain unchanged, amidst speculation about potential rate cuts [1][3]. Economic Data and Market Reactions - Prior to the meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut were over 65%, with a nearly certain outlook for a cut by the end of October. However, the Fed's decision dampened these expectations significantly [3]. - Following the announcement, the likelihood of a September rate cut dropped to approximately 40%, while the probability for an October cut rose to about 80% [3]. - Economic indicators show a mixed picture: the U.S. economy rebounded strongly in Q2 2025 with an annualized GDP growth rate of 3%, surpassing the expected 2.4% [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, with the core CPI increasing by 2.9%, slightly below expectations [3]. - The unemployment rate has decreased to 4.1%, but job growth in the private sector has slowed significantly, with new jobs primarily coming from the public sector [4]. Internal Fed Dynamics - For the first time in over 30 years, two Federal Reserve governors voted against the rate decision, indicating internal divisions regarding the need for a rate cut [5]. - Some members of the Fed believe the current economic conditions do not warrant a rate cut, fearing potential inflation and long-term economic stability issues [7]. - Conversely, proponents of a rate cut argue that the slowing job market and global economic uncertainties necessitate action to stimulate growth [7]. Future Outlook - The outlook for a September rate cut remains uncertain, as the Fed will closely monitor economic developments and additional data before making decisions [8]. - Upcoming employment and inflation data will play a crucial role in influencing the Fed's rate decisions leading up to the next meeting [8]. - External factors such as international trade dynamics and geopolitical risks may also impact the Fed's policy decisions [10].