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房子从100万跌到42万,两代人的积蓄成为泡影,现在要出手吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-05 06:24

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a stark divide in 2025, with first-tier cities seeing a steady rise in property prices while third and fourth-tier cities face significant price declines, leading to a loss of wealth for many families [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In the first quarter of 2025, the average price of second-hand homes in core areas of first-tier cities increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with some popular districts reaching historical highs [3]. - Conversely, third and fourth-tier cities experienced a price drop of 5.8%, with some suburban properties seeing declines exceeding 50% [3]. Group 2: Demographic Changes - The population structure is shifting dramatically, with a decrease of 120 million in the population of those born in the 1990s compared to the 1980s, and the number of marriages in 2024 expected to fall below 5 million [5]. - Continuous outflow of population from third and fourth-tier cities is evident, as seen in Yulin, Shaanxi, where outdated urban areas have seen annual price declines of 5% due to a lack of young labor [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total housing supply in China is sufficient for 3 billion people, yet properties in core areas like Ordos priced at 7,000 yuan per square meter remain unsold [5]. - In cities like Zhengzhou and Wuhan, the number of second-hand homes listed has surpassed 200,000, with an average transaction period of 119 days, indicating a severe oversupply [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For non-core properties in third and fourth-tier cities, immediate divestment is advised, as properties may depreciate from 1.2 million to between 700,000 and 850,000 over five years, with an annual depreciation rate of 8% [7]. - Properties located within 1 kilometer of metro stations in core cities, particularly those less than 10 years old and near quality schools, are recommended for retention, as they may appreciate in value over the next five years [10]. - "Chicken rib properties" in first-tier old neighborhoods or second-tier non-core areas should be evaluated for potential upgrades or sales based on urban renewal plans [10]. Group 5: Policy Implications - The concentration of policy resources, such as special bonds and urban renewal funds, is heavily skewed towards high-capacity cities, with Shanghai receiving 240 billion yuan in guaranteed housing loans, while third and fourth-tier cities struggle to access similar support [8]. - The recent political bureau meeting emphasized "high-quality urban renewal," hinting at potential systemic rescue plans for families holding depreciating properties [12].