非农数据爆冷，金价暴力反弹，如何把握布局机会？

Group 1 - The gold market has experienced significant volatility in 2025, with prices entering a high-level consolidation phase after breaking the historical high of $3500 per ounce on April 22, 2025 [1] - Gold prices are currently fluctuating between $3100 and $3500 per ounce, with strong support observed around the $3200-$3300 range, suggesting potential buying opportunities if the long-term bullish trend remains intact [1] - The recent weak non-farm payroll data has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a projected 84.8% probability of a rate cut in September and two cuts expected within the year, each by 50 basis points [3][8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's internal policy disagreements have intensified, with two dissenting votes during the July meeting indicating differing views on the monetary policy path, particularly regarding potential rate cuts [9] - The imposition of new tariffs by the Trump administration has increased global trade uncertainty, further driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold [10] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have also contributed to heightened short-term demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [11] Group 3 - Analysts from Huayuan Securities believe that the combination of interest rate cuts and trade policies will provide strong momentum for gold prices in the near term, with a bullish outlook for 2025 [12] - According to Caitong Securities, the inflationary pressures from tariffs may lead to continued stimulus measures from the White House, enhancing gold's investment appeal amid ongoing global trade tensions [13] - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850) and gold stock ETFs (159562), are gaining popularity due to their low management fees and the ability to track gold prices effectively, making them attractive investment options [14][17]