重大调整！国债等债券利息收入征税，对理财影响几何？

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, which is expected to impact bond investors and financial institutions [1] Group 1: Impact on Bond Market - The announcement specifies that the new tax applies only to bonds issued after August 8, while existing bonds remain exempt from VAT, leading to short-term price adjustments based on expectations of future supply rather than changes in cash flows from existing bonds [1] - The current yield spread between the 10-year active government bonds and older exempt bonds remains stable at around 0.5 basis points, indicating a lack of comparable benchmarks for re-evaluating the tax-exempt value of older bonds [1] - The policy adjustment provides a buffer, as it does not affect bonds issued before August 8, 2025, until they mature, and it is expected to have a limited short-term impact on the wealth management market [1][2] Group 2: Investor Behavior and Market Strategy - Overall market risk appetite remains low, with most investors preferring stable, low-risk products, which suggests that bond assets will continue to dominate wealth management product allocations, with limited movement towards equity products [2] - The introduction of VAT may increase the holding costs for institutions by approximately 12 basis points, but factors such as liquidity premiums and potential tax deductions for financial institutions need further clarification [2] - The actual price difference for new bonds after the VAT implementation is expected to converge to around 3 to 6 basis points, considering various influencing factors [2] Group 3: Asset Management Products - Asset management products may experience less impact from the VAT compared to proprietary trading, as they will be subject to a simplified tax method with a lower VAT rate of 3% on interest income from government bonds [3] - This could lead to an increased willingness among banks and other institutions to invest in debt instruments through outsourced public funds [3]