特朗普从力推降息到解雇劳工高官，美元与市场信心双双承压

Core Viewpoint - Trump's aggressive actions in response to weak employment data have raised concerns about political interference in independent institutions, undermining market confidence in U.S. economic data and increasing uncertainty premiums [1][7]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Trump has intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, labeling him a "stubborn idiot" and blaming him for the economic risks due to delayed interest rate cuts [3]. - The market's focus on the Federal Reserve's policies has heightened due to Trump's strong stance against Powell [3]. Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The July employment report revealed a downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June, the largest two-month adjustment since 1968 outside of a recession, leading to significant market reactions [4]. - Following the employment data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut surged, with investors nearly certain of a 25 basis point cut next month [4]. Group 3: Political Interference Concerns - Trump's dismissal of Labor Statistics Bureau Chief McEntarfer, based on unfounded accusations of data manipulation, has sparked backlash from economists and analysts, who view it as blatant political interference [7][8]. - The integrity of independent institutions like the Labor Statistics Bureau is now under scrutiny, potentially shaking the foundation of trust in U.S. economic data [8]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market's shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts reflects the impact of employment data and Trump's interventions, leading to increased uncertainty [11]. - The upcoming release of U.S. ISM services PMI data and statements from Federal Reserve officials will be critical in assessing the future direction of the dollar and market confidence [12].