ATFX：历史级非农修正引爆降息交易，欧元跃升为避风港

Group 1 - The core employment data from the US indicates a significant slowdown in the job market, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July, far below the expected 106,000, and a downward revision of over 250,000 jobs for May and June, marking the largest adjustment since the pandemic [1] - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has surged, with an 80.9% probability for a 25 basis point cut, leading to a sharp decline in the US dollar index [1] - The euro has benefited from the dollar's weakness, rising 1.33% against the dollar to close at 1.1593, marking one of its strongest single-day performances in months [1] Group 2 - Eurozone's July CPI increased by 2.0% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.8%, indicating that inflation is nearing the European Central Bank's medium-term target [2] - Major economies like France and Germany are experiencing a consumption rebound, which offsets the pressure from overall GDP growth slowdown, showcasing unexpected resilience in the Eurozone economy [2] - The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and EU are at a critical juncture, with the US considering maintaining high tariffs on certain EU goods, which could lead to retaliatory measures from the EU [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is at a critical juncture, with significant divergence between bulls and bears, and the price is currently oscillating around the 1.1546 level [4] - Citibank believes that the dollar sell-off triggered by the non-farm data will support the euro's short-term upward trend, while Deutsche Bank warns of potential adjustment pressure on the euro if trade negotiations fail or if Eurozone inflation weakens [4] - The euro is seen as having medium to short-term upward potential driven by the dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank's stable stance [5]