Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-05 08:45Core Insights - Recent coal prices have seen a broad increase, with coking coal experiencing consecutive price hikes in its second and third rounds [1] - The coal market is stabilizing and expected to benefit from seasonal demand increases, slowing production growth, and declining coal import expectations in the second half of the year [1] - The National Energy Administration has issued a notice limiting annual and monthly coal production to not exceed announced capacities, which is expected to strengthen supply contraction expectations and support coal prices [1] Market Dynamics - All coal types have experienced price increases, with CCI5500 thermal coal priced at 650 RMB/ton, reflecting an 11 RMB/ton week-on-week increase [1] - High temperatures have led to increased daily consumption and proactive stockpiling by power plants, contributing to a 7% cumulative increase in port coal prices from the bottom [1] - Coking coal prices at domestic ports rose by 240 RMB/ton to 1680 RMB/ton, marking a 37% increase since early July [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - The domestic power demand has shown steady growth, while the year-on-year growth rate of domestic raw coal production continues to slow down [3] - Coal imports have seen a significant decline, with a 7.9% year-on-year decrease in coal trade volume for the first half of 2025 [3] - Supply from major production areas is stable, but certain regions are experiencing supply constraints due to accidents and maintenance, leading to a slight overall production decline [2] Recommendations - Companies with stable profit distributions in thermal coal include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others [4] - High elasticity companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and supply contraction include Lu'an Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, and others [4]