又来了3万吨阿根廷豆粕，美豆要急眼了！

Core Insights - In June, Chinese buyers purchased 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal, marking the first order since the 2019 agreement allowing Argentine soybeans and soybean meal to enter China [2] - The increase in soybean meal demand is attributed to rising living standards and increased pork consumption in China, leading to an annual import volume of nearly 100 million tons [2] - The soybean market is concentrated in the Americas, primarily in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina, with South American soybean exports peaking from May to September [4] Market Dynamics - The U.S.-China trade war has created uncertainty regarding the supply of U.S. soybeans to China, especially in the latter half of the year [5][6] - Argentina's soybean meal exports have the potential to grow significantly, with current purchases being a small fraction of China's annual soybean meal consumption of 70-80 million tons [8][11] - The initial 90,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal could be a precursor to larger shipments if the supply chain stabilizes, as Argentina has an annual export capacity of 30 million tons [11] Competitive Landscape - The U.S. soybean market faces challenges as it loses access to the Chinese market, which is crucial for its exports [12] - Historical context shows that Brazil's corn quickly gained market share in China, suggesting that Argentine soybean meal could follow a similar trajectory [10] - The U.S. agricultural sector has previously suffered significant losses due to trade disputes, with over $27 billion lost in the last trade war, primarily affecting soybean farmers [14]