Wall Street sets SMCI stock price ahead of earnings report

Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer is expected to report its fourth-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, with analysts projecting revenue of approximately $6.13 billion and earnings of $0.75 per share, despite a bearish sentiment and downward revisions in price targets [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The anticipated revenue for the fourth quarter is around $6.13 billion, with earnings projected at $0.75 per share [1]. - The company had previously estimated revenue between $5.6 billion and $6.4 billion, with non-GAAP EPS expected in the range of $0.40 to $0.50 [1]. Group 2: Analyst Sentiment and Ratings - Sentiment has turned more bearish, with many analysts revising price targets downward; Super Micro has missed revenue expectations in five of the past eight quarters [2]. - Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson maintained a Neutral rating with a price target of $30, citing concerns over limited visibility and margin pressures [2]. - According to TipRanks data, the stock has a Hold consensus rating, with 5 Buy ratings, 7 Hold recommendations, and 2 Sell ratings [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Opportunities - Spending from neocloud providers, AI model builders, and government-backed buyers is increasing, with more customers turning to OEMs like Super Micro for AI server needs [3]. - Bryson noted that Nvidia prioritizing GB200 shipments to OEMs could benefit Super Micro [3]. - Citi raised its price target to $52 from $37, highlighting the ramp-up of GB200/300 products and growing demand in sovereign and enterprise AI markets [4]. Group 4: Future Projections - Bryson believes Super Micro could eventually achieve $10 billion in quarterly sales, although demand visibility remains unclear due to reliance on related parties for key components [4]. - The average 12-month price target for SMCI stock is $42.85, indicating a potential decline of 24.35% from current levels, with targets ranging from $70.00 to $24.00 [8].